Primary elections are an opinion poll
Like most Argentine institutions, “primary elections” are a North American product that may have worked well enough in the US, a country whose inhabitants are happy to get along with just two big parties, but is of little use here where there are dozens of them and every self-respecting politician feels free to invent his or her own. Not surprisingly, many people dislike being obliged to vote in elections in which nobody will actually be elected, though they may be allowed to choose the candidates who in October will represent an improvised leftist coalition in Buenos Aires City.
Even so, townships up and down the country have been plastered with pictures of individuals who, with a smile, exhort people to vote for them because “they can”, or might want to “join in”, belonging to mysterious political factions identified by a number (list 7524 has the answer, we are helpfully informed) that may, or may not, be connected to Cristina’s Victory Front, some other Peronist outfit, what is left of the Radical Civic Union or, perhaps, a tiny neighbourhood grouping that dreams of taking over the local municipality from the scoundrels who currently run it.
Politics in Argentina being a top-down affair in which the party boss always has the final say when it comes to naming the candidates, by general agreement the primaries are being treated as an unusually inquisitive opinion poll. As it is assumed that the results will tell us how Cristina’s popularity is holding up and whether the Tigre mayor Sergio Massa is a serious presidential contender or merely another attractive image that, like a jellyfish exposed to the sun, will melt under scrutiny, senior politicians are taking them seriously.
Cristina certainly is. She has gone to quite extraordinary lengths to improve the chances of her young representative, Lomas de Zamora mayor Martín Insaurralde, cheerfully trampling on the electoral rules, getting him a photo op with Pope Francis and making full use of the State’s resources to finance what in theory is his campaign. For weeks now, campaign ads showing Cristina, Insaurralde and the Buenos Aires Province governor Daniel Scioli, accompanied by the habitual inane slogans, have been popping up in the Internet sites of a wide range of foreign newspapers, right-wing and left-wing blogs, places frequented by enthusiasts for minority sports, those interested in scientific developments, religious controversies, literary affairs and, no doubt, many less respectable pursuits.
The consensus is that, unless Insaurralde manages to get more votes than Massa, Cristina will be in deep trouble. Argentine politicians do not treat lame ducks with the kindness they deserve. Should the word get round that Cristina really will have to leave the Pink House in December 2015, people who up to now have been among her most fervent supporters will immediately start trying to ingratiate themselves with whoever they think is most likely to succeed her. In other countries, that would merely mean that the next couple of years would see plenty of political bickering. In Argentina, the loss of power by a president accustomed to behaving like an absolute monarch of the old no-nonsense school, one, moreover, who has assembled a sort of Praetorian Guard of people who are not exactly democrats, could give rise to a huge political crisis similar to the one that drove Fernando de la Rúa from office.
As Cristina and her more rackety followers are well aware, plenty of people would like to see the lot of them clapped in jail for helping themselves to large dollops of taxpayers’ money. So, if Insaurralde fails to surprise all the pundits by sweeping to a splendid victory, they would have little choice but to depend either on Massa’s presumed reluctance to make waves or, as would be more likely, on the help they could receive from Scioli, a man many Kirchnerites dislike intensely because they suspect that deep down he is a “neoliberal” but who, nonetheless, has remained, at least nominally, one of their number.
Barely a month ago, many assumed that Scioli had made a big mistake by refusing to ally himself with Massa. Since then, most have changed their mind. Scioli’s strategy has always been to put up with the president’s tantrums and the insults thrown at him by her “soldiers” in part because he needs federal money to keep his province’s public employees more or less happy, and in part because he has always thought that sooner or later the ruling cabal would have to find a successor to Cristina capable of bringing in the votes. As Scioli is the only person who says he supports the government who fits the bill, he is better placed than anybody to offer the country the “continuation and change” that it appears to want. That may prove a possible combination, but promising to deliver it could enable him to win the next presidential election.
Scioli has played a substantial role in the primary campaign. Politicians familiar with the ways of Buenos Aires Province have noted that support for Insaurralde has risen sharply in the districts where he has been most active. So too have many Kirchnerites. Distasteful as Scioli may be to the fanatics who would like to believe they are ramming through something resembling a revolution, they have come to appreciate that he could be the only person who is popular enough to save them from an uncomfortable fate. If Insaurralde loses by a small margin, as many predict, that would be attributed to the help he received from Scioli who would then be hailed as the coming man. Were he to win big, his prospects would look only slightly dimmer because Cristina would benefit, but should Massa romp to a decisive victory, he would face a far stronger challenge than he would like in what he must fondly believe is his own personal fiefdom and therefore in the country as a whole.
Article taken from here.
Like most Argentine institutions, “primary elections” are a North American product that may have worked well enough in the US, a country whose inhabitants are happy to get along with just two big parties, but is of little use here where there are dozens of them and every self-respecting politician feels free to invent his or her own. Not surprisingly, many people dislike being obliged to vote in elections in which nobody will actually be elected, though they may be allowed to choose the candidates who in October will represent an improvised leftist coalition in Buenos Aires City.
Even so, townships up and down the country have been plastered with pictures of individuals who, with a smile, exhort people to vote for them because “they can”, or might want to “join in”, belonging to mysterious political factions identified by a number (list 7524 has the answer, we are helpfully informed) that may, or may not, be connected to Cristina’s Victory Front, some other Peronist outfit, what is left of the Radical Civic Union or, perhaps, a tiny neighbourhood grouping that dreams of taking over the local municipality from the scoundrels who currently run it.
Politics in Argentina being a top-down affair in which the party boss always has the final say when it comes to naming the candidates, by general agreement the primaries are being treated as an unusually inquisitive opinion poll. As it is assumed that the results will tell us how Cristina’s popularity is holding up and whether the Tigre mayor Sergio Massa is a serious presidential contender or merely another attractive image that, like a jellyfish exposed to the sun, will melt under scrutiny, senior politicians are taking them seriously.
Cristina certainly is. She has gone to quite extraordinary lengths to improve the chances of her young representative, Lomas de Zamora mayor Martín Insaurralde, cheerfully trampling on the electoral rules, getting him a photo op with Pope Francis and making full use of the State’s resources to finance what in theory is his campaign. For weeks now, campaign ads showing Cristina, Insaurralde and the Buenos Aires Province governor Daniel Scioli, accompanied by the habitual inane slogans, have been popping up in the Internet sites of a wide range of foreign newspapers, right-wing and left-wing blogs, places frequented by enthusiasts for minority sports, those interested in scientific developments, religious controversies, literary affairs and, no doubt, many less respectable pursuits.
The consensus is that, unless Insaurralde manages to get more votes than Massa, Cristina will be in deep trouble. Argentine politicians do not treat lame ducks with the kindness they deserve. Should the word get round that Cristina really will have to leave the Pink House in December 2015, people who up to now have been among her most fervent supporters will immediately start trying to ingratiate themselves with whoever they think is most likely to succeed her. In other countries, that would merely mean that the next couple of years would see plenty of political bickering. In Argentina, the loss of power by a president accustomed to behaving like an absolute monarch of the old no-nonsense school, one, moreover, who has assembled a sort of Praetorian Guard of people who are not exactly democrats, could give rise to a huge political crisis similar to the one that drove Fernando de la Rúa from office.
As Cristina and her more rackety followers are well aware, plenty of people would like to see the lot of them clapped in jail for helping themselves to large dollops of taxpayers’ money. So, if Insaurralde fails to surprise all the pundits by sweeping to a splendid victory, they would have little choice but to depend either on Massa’s presumed reluctance to make waves or, as would be more likely, on the help they could receive from Scioli, a man many Kirchnerites dislike intensely because they suspect that deep down he is a “neoliberal” but who, nonetheless, has remained, at least nominally, one of their number.
Barely a month ago, many assumed that Scioli had made a big mistake by refusing to ally himself with Massa. Since then, most have changed their mind. Scioli’s strategy has always been to put up with the president’s tantrums and the insults thrown at him by her “soldiers” in part because he needs federal money to keep his province’s public employees more or less happy, and in part because he has always thought that sooner or later the ruling cabal would have to find a successor to Cristina capable of bringing in the votes. As Scioli is the only person who says he supports the government who fits the bill, he is better placed than anybody to offer the country the “continuation and change” that it appears to want. That may prove a possible combination, but promising to deliver it could enable him to win the next presidential election.
Scioli has played a substantial role in the primary campaign. Politicians familiar with the ways of Buenos Aires Province have noted that support for Insaurralde has risen sharply in the districts where he has been most active. So too have many Kirchnerites. Distasteful as Scioli may be to the fanatics who would like to believe they are ramming through something resembling a revolution, they have come to appreciate that he could be the only person who is popular enough to save them from an uncomfortable fate. If Insaurralde loses by a small margin, as many predict, that would be attributed to the help he received from Scioli who would then be hailed as the coming man. Were he to win big, his prospects would look only slightly dimmer because Cristina would benefit, but should Massa romp to a decisive victory, he would face a far stronger challenge than he would like in what he must fondly believe is his own personal fiefdom and therefore in the country as a whole.
Article taken from here.
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